SHFE tin hits 270,000 yuan but faces pressure, fluctuating at highs amid supply disruptions and macro battles [SMM Tin Midday Review]

As of the midday session on July 23, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2508) was temporarily quoted at 268,980 yuan/mt, up 0.58% from the previous settlement price. The intraday high reached 270,120 yuan/mt, with the amplitude expanding to 1.0%. The LME tin 3-month contract also strengthened, quoted at $33,700/mt, down 0.65% from the previous day.

Heightened price sensitivity: As tin prices approach the 270,000 yuan mark, downstream processing enterprises exhibit low purchase willingness, and spot trade activity has dropped to a monthly low.

Surge in US Fed policy uncertainty: Trump declared that "Powell is about to leave office" and pressured for a 3 percentage point interest rate cut. The US dollar index pulled back, boosting metal prices. However, the approaching August 1 deadline for the US to impose a 50% tariff on China has curbed risk appetite.

SHFE tin jumped initially and then pulled back during the midday session, with significant resistance at the 270,000 yuan level, reflecting the market's cautious pricing amid "supply recovery + off-season demand". Attention should be paid to the following in the afternoon:

LME Asia session trends: If inventory continues to decline or the US dollar weakens further, it may drive SHFE tin to test the 270,000 yuan resistance level;

Domestic policy expectations: If the details of the non-ferrous metals industry's steady growth plan exceed expectations, it may stimulate short-term speculative buying.